Study: Stress Test “Mittelstand” 2020

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Dr. Sebastian
Theopold
Dr. Sebastian
Theopold
Martin
Witthöft

STUDY
04 / 2020

Stress Test “Mittelstand” 2020

How resilient is the German „Mittelstand“ and what will it look like post-COVID-19? Which companies have enough substance to cope with this extraordinary crisis and which are most affected?

In order to provide quantitative support to the current debate about impending insolvencies, loser industries and the impact on the “Mittelstand” landscape, Munich Strategy has analyzed the crisis resistance of the German “Mittelstand”. On the basis of a specific crisis stress test, companies with revenues between EUR 10 million to EUR 2 billion were analyzed. The analysis is based on the Munich Strategy “Mittelstand” database with performance and strategy data of more than 3,500 companies across all industries and regions in Germany. The stress test has produced four key findings:

1. Fast-paced recession hits like a hammer blow

The COVID-19 crash comes unexpected and hits the German “Mittelstand” with full force. Even if a recovery sets in as early as mid 2020, the effects and consequences will be devastating.

2. No medium-sized company is immune, almost all performance classes are affected

Up to 45% of the German “Mittelstand” are threatened overnight. Even apparently healthy companies turn into “borderliners” and transform into acquisition targets.

3. Industry affiliation is the decisive factor for “to be, or not to be”

Companies across all industries are affected. However, the share of “borderliners” in the services and retail industry is particularly high. The traditionally weak food industry profits from its systematically relevant status.

4. Nothing will be the way it used to be – the German “Mittelstand” faces a reorganization

Crisis-resistant “Mittelstand” companies win market shares and become “consolidators”. They will come back even stronger after the crisis. Now is the time for companies to secure their post-crisis position.

Content of the study

  • Ø  Sales, earnings and equity of the performance classes ‘Lighthouses’, ‘Compact Class’ und ‘Low Performer’ 2013-2019
  • Forecast scenario “Hammer and Dance” – GDP development in Germany 2013 – 2021 FC
  • Effects of the crisis on the classes of the “Mittelstand” – formation of ‘Borderliners’
  • Analysis: Crisis vulnerability by industry
  • Phases of the crisis and specific measures
  • Options for “Borderliners”
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Munich Strategy GmbH & Co. KG
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Read more (in German)

“Selbst solide Mittelständler geraten in Existenznot”
Article about the “Stress Test Mittelstand” on www.handelsblatt.com