Dr. Constantin Greiner at the VDMA: Construction Markets Between Structural Demand and Geopolitical Disruption

As part of a VDMA event, Dr. Constantin Greiner discussed the latest developments in the European construction industry and their strategic implications for manufacturers of construction products and building technologies.
The presentation focused on why, despite continued strong structural demand, many market participants must prepare for permanently changed competitive conditions and what strategic conclusions can be drawn.

“Companies still expecting a return to pre-crisis market volumes are planning too optimistically. Future growth will increasingly come from outperforming competitors rather than from market growth itself.”

Construction Markets Continue to Fall Short of Expectations

Just a year ago, many expected 2025 to mark the turning point for the construction industry. Declining interest rates, strong demand for housing and healthy order books fueled expectations of a recovery. Recent developments, however, paint a more nuanced picture.
While the renovation market has remained comparatively resilient, geopolitical uncertainty, higher financing costs and declining building permits continue to weigh on residential new construction. At the same time, key European export markets remain weak, limiting the ability of international demand to offset the slowdown.

Growth Will Be Driven by Competitive Strength

The analysis shows that the primary challenge is no longer the economic cycle alone. Overcapacity, rising raw material costs and continued pricing pressure are fundamentally reshaping competitive dynamics.
Going forward, companies will primarily grow by gaining market share from competitors. Success will therefore depend on clear strategic positioning rather than on expectations of a broad market recovery.

Clear Positioning Becomes a Critical Success Factor

The most successful companies are those that consistently commit to a clearly defined business model.
Dr. Greiner distinguishes between two successful archetypes: specialists, who differentiate through proven customer value and system expertise, and active consolidators, who create competitive advantages through lean operating models and consistent cost leadership. Companies without a clear strategic position, by contrast, are coming under increasing pressure.

Conclusion

The construction industry is not facing a short-term cyclical downturn, but a structural realignment. Long-term success will therefore depend less on overall market development and more on companies’ ability to continuously evolve their business models, strengthen their competitive advantages and establish a clear market position.

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European Construction Quarterly: “The market is stabilizing, but there is no real recovery yet.“ Interview with Dr. Constantin Greiner